ps: 将笔记本上写的笔记,敲一遍,算是复盘

牛市在悲观中诞生,在怀疑中成长,在乐观中成熟,在兴奋中死亡。最悲观的时刻正是买进的最佳时机,最乐观的时刻正是卖出的最佳时机。

在别人沮丧地卖出时趁机买进,在别人疯狂买进时趁机卖出,这需要最大的毅力,但收获也最丰硕。

一个,聪明机灵的人想要变成一个成功的投资者,关键是:别做蠢事。

  • 尽可能低的价格去买股票,股票的卖出价格之所以便宜,原因只有一个,其他人都在卖出,要想买到低价股,你必须注意观察公众最害怕和最悲观之所在,只要你低价买到大量有获利潜力的股票,那你就做了一次成功的投资,要做到这一点,唯一的方法时在别人卖出的时候趁机买进。在这一点上,投资者经常会陷入矛盾,因为要与主流意见背道而驰并不是件容易的事。
  • 当股票价格发生剧烈变化时,你必须积极研究那些导致变化的信息。仅仅因为价格下跌就购买股票是不谨慎的做法。
  • 买进股票之前,要了解这家公司:运作方式、刺激销售的原因,为维持利润而面临的各种压力,业绩在一段时间内的波动情况、应对竞争的方式等。
  • 一些最戏剧性的股价棉花通常并非因为资产的价值真正发生了改变,而是投资者调整自己的的感觉和看法的结果。
  • 波动代表机会。
  • 当市场被消极悲观情绪所笼罩时,公司价值和股票报价之间出现错位的机会会最大。
  • 前景越暗淡回报越丰厚,前提是这个前景发生了逆转。
  • 反思自己投资方法的最佳时机是当你最成功的时候,而不是当你犯下最多错误的时候。
  • 信息不对称是导致对股票价值判断不同的一个原因。
  • 投资的唯一障碍其实是你不愿意比身旁的人多付出那么一点去寻找答案
  • 最成功的人和其余众人之间的区别就在于,是否愿意 多投入那么一个钟头用于培训,多投入那么一个钟头用于研究。每个人都曾遇见这样的人,他在自己的职业领域,体育方面或者课堂学习方面才华出众,但却从未获得非凡的成就,因为天底下没有让他可以免费领取的成功
  • 约翰寻找股票的标准:每股价格除以估算的未来5年的每股收益(这里就是市盈率了),股票价格不超过这个数字的5倍–>这种交易是在价值陷入低迷的极端请款下进行的
  • 预测一个长达5年的业绩周期,并在其中运用这一方法并非易事:1、这家公司拥有什么样的竞争优势;2、如果他们打算长期维持其盈利能力,那么该公司就应该拥有某种竞争优势。他们的产品成本是否较低呢?3、他们是否有一个较好的品牌使得人们对其产品品质看法较好,从而导致销售价格偏高呢?
  • 如果打算尝试一下对某公司未来业绩进行预测的话,你需要对该公司及其前景进行提问,这里的长期前景是以年为单位,而不是以季节为单位进行计量的。你的所有疑问以及你通过计算该公司未来长期收益而得出的答案,将会让你与市场上其他买家和卖家相比,在对该公司的观点看法上拥有极大的优势。
  • 观察公司未来5年的收益这种做法还有一个重要的优势,即它从心理上迫使你对任何近期的干扰噪音不予理睬,尽管这种噪音已经完全淹没了市场。
  • 大多数投资者必须解决的首要问题之一是,购买股票时如何承担当地货币产生的风险(主要指通货膨胀)。
  • 出口大于进口,说明出口国正在积累储备或储蓄,而且其他国家购买它的产品也会对该出口过造成货币升值的压力。
  • 找到低价股,要分析造成低价的原因,如果未来可改善,才可投资
  • 购买被忽视的股票存在一个问题,就是只有耐心才能获得回报。
  • 博傻理论:在资本市场中,即使你完全清楚某物已经估价过高,还是会继续购买,因为这个物品的价格仍在上升,等时机合适,你会找到一个更大的傻瓜来接手。
  • 要记住一个简单的基本事实:资产价格和资产价值之间的关系永远适用,忽视这个关系只会使你陷入危险。
  • 对股票的分析要从许多不同的角度进行。
  • 市现率是股票价格与每股现金流量的比率,可用于评价股票的价格水平和风险水平。市现率越大,表明上市公司的每股现金增加额越多,经营压力越小。
  • 重置价值:重新置换(创办)公司所属资产的花费。影响:eg:公司净资产100元,但物价下跌了20%那么公司的重置只需80元,那么公司净资产即被高估了,相反,那么也说明了公司只有净资产的正常率大于通货膨胀才是真正的增长。
  • 有关任何一家公司最重要的信息通常来自于其竞争对手,而不是该公司本身。因为优秀的公司会高度关注于其竞争的公司,并会付出巨大的努力,力争在竞争中保持领先地位。
  • 企业价值 = 股票的市场价值(市值) + 债务总额 – 现金
  • 投资者为什么更加钟情于股票的回购:1、增加公司的价值。2、与分红相比不需要纳税。
  • 把注意力放在那些具体数据而非公众观点上,你就会获得一种能经受任何市场考验的投资策略。
  • 伴随投机狂热的一个特点是财富消费效应。(ps:茅台等消费股是投机狂热导致的财富消费效应的表现吗?)
  • 资产泡沫令人感到可悲的特点之一是,一些人不道德地乘机利用毫无戒心的大众赚钱。
  • 与你有偿付债务能力的时间相比,市场保持非理性状态所持续的时间更长。
  • *在首次公开募股以后,钱只在买家和卖家之间换手,并不流回公司,除非公司决定提供更多股票
  • 首次公开募股开始时,人们对股票的热情通常会推动股票报价上涨,并超过股票内在价值,因为人们对股票的需求量大大超过了正常水平。当首次公开发型的股票开始在公开市场自由交易的时候,人们对股票的热情和需求就会逐渐减弱并正常化,因此在首次公开募股开始数月之后,会有股票下跌发生也就不足为期了。
  • 当量出售股票会引起股票销售连锁反应,最终导致暴跌。
  • 极度悲观:当最后一位持股者决定放弃并卖出股票的时候,当多有的卖家都消失,只剩下买家的时候就是极度悲观点。
  • 最成功的人,往往是那些坚持的最久,走的最远的人。
  • 要时长对市场上前景最糟的股票进行调查研究,而不是最好的。
  • 错误观念造成恐慌性的大抛售恰好是错误观念最盛行的时期。
  • 历史表明,危机一开始的时候,情况看上去仿佛特别糟,但是随着时间的流逝,所有的恐慌都会渐渐趋于缓和。恐慌消失之后,股票价格就会回升。
  • 世界上最优秀的投资者,往往就是靠着3到4个百分点的微小差距从投资大众中脱颖而出的。
  • 恐慌会带来绝好的投资机会,在恐慌中买入,并长期持有。
  • 街头血溅是买入的最佳时机,甚至包括你自己的血在内。不要和市场大众一样采取被动防守的策略,要采取主动进攻策略,积极寻找那些渐渐露出端倪的低价股。你的投资目标是增加长期回报,而不是仓促冒失的卖出股票。要牢牢盯住这一目标
  • 媒体经常会放大负面消息,并且管用手法是指出负面消息和以前一个重大恐慌造成的股市反应存在相似性。
  • 随大流会加快使你成为一名平庸的投资者。
  • 成功的投资者之所以最成功,主要看他在熊市的表现,而不是在牛市中的表现。
  • 选择低负债的公司,和当环境恶化时公司不会受债务所累。 当前负债低,不以为着环境恶化时负债不会变坏。
  • 权益负债率 = (短期债务 + 长期债务)/股东权益。
  • 净权益债率 = (短期债务 + 长期债务 – 现金)/股东权益。
  • 税息折旧及摊销前利润利息覆盖率 = 税息折旧及摊销前盈利收入/利息。 (这个利率经前用来快速估算某公司的利息偿付能力。)
  • 除了负债比率之外,考察一段时期内公司利润表的表现也很重要。
  • 市场观察会对恐慌性事件感到恐惧并补习大肆渲染。
  • ** 大多数时候,普通投资者和伟大投资者之间的区别不在于他是否是个天才的选股高手,而在于他是否愿意买下其他人不要的股票。**
  • 如果仅仅专注于基金的近期表现,那么你就会和那些共同基金的投资大众犯同一个毛病,买入太迟而卖出太早。
  • 要对某只共同基金进行调查,最重要的考虑因素是该基金的投资方式,其投资方式应该与你的投资方式保持一致。
  • 成功猎取便宜货的关键是要始终锲而不舍地在金融市场上搜寻最佳价值。这种搜寻应该做到范围广泛,能涵盖全球所有的股票市场以及各式各样的债券市场。
  • 预测长期的股票的每股股票,我们要注意:经济过剩所引发的日益严重的威胁,以及过程的生产能力所以发的未来对利润空间和收益的激烈争夺。
  • 预测一个公司未来长达10年的前景,便宜货猎手就不得不思考这个公司在市场上的竞争地位。
  • 对公司竞争对手分析是为了帮助我们大体了解一家公司在未来维持其利润的能力有多强。
  • 要考率到一个关键因素:经济学中最基本的原则之一:超额利润会带来竞争,这种竞争会越来越激烈,除非超额利润因被挤压而缩减。
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